This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Gyges’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Gyges | training | published before 2020 | 1,141 | 1,303 |
Gyges | validation | published 2020 | 86 | 82 |
Gyges | test | published after 2020 | 81 | 51 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Gyges | Fantasy Flight Games | 7.4% | 0.8% | 9.15 |
Gyges | ZMan Games | 6.0% | 1.2% | 5.00 |
Gyges | Miniatures Game | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.40 |
Gyges | Rio Grande Games | 7.1% | 1.6% | 4.34 |
Gyges | Games With Solitaire Rules | 17.1% | 4.5% | 3.78 |
Gyges | Fighting | 23.3% | 6.5% | 3.58 |
Gyges | Asmodee | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.50 |
Gyges | GMT Games | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.44 |
Gyges | Science Fiction | 19.0% | 6.9% | 2.75 |
Gyges | Fantasy | 26.4% | 11.0% | 2.39 |
Gyges | The Avalon Hill Game Co | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.30 |
Gyges | Action Dexterity | 3.9% | 5.3% | 0.75 |
Gyges | Movies TV Radio Theme | 2.9% | 5.1% | 0.57 |
Gyges | Paper And Pencil | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.36 |
Gyges | Roll Spin And Move | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24 |
Gyges | Childrens Game | 1.0% | 8.4% | 0.11 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.995 | yes |
2 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.989 | no |
3 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.985 | yes |
4 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.984 | no |
5 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.978 | yes |
6 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.976 | yes |
7 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.974 | yes |
8 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.971 | no |
9 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.971 | no |
10 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.969 | no |
11 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.962 | no |
12 | 2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.960 | no |
13 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.959 | yes |
14 | 2000 | 475 | Taj Mahal | 0.955 | yes |
15 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.955 | yes |
16 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.948 | yes |
17 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.948 | yes |
18 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.934 | yes |
19 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.923 | yes |
20 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.923 | yes |
21 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.918 | yes |
22 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.917 | yes |
23 | 2010 | 62222 | Commands & Colors: Napoleonics | 0.912 | yes |
24 | 2004 | 11170 | Heroscape Master Set: Rise of the Valkyrie | 0.910 | yes |
25 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.905 | yes |
26 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.905 | yes |
27 | 2010 | 54361 | Heroscape Master Set: Battle for the Underdark | 0.900 | yes |
28 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.900 | no |
29 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.895 | yes |
30 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.893 | yes |
31 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.891 | yes |
32 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.890 | yes |
33 | 2004 | 9446 | Blue Moon | 0.885 | yes |
34 | 1995 | 46 | Medici | 0.884 | no |
35 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.882 | yes |
36 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.880 | yes |
37 | 2008 | 38707 | Bushido: Der Weg des Kriegers | 0.879 | yes |
38 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.879 | no |
39 | 2017 | 157979 | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | 0.877 | no |
40 | 2011 | 72125 | Eclipse | 0.876 | yes |
41 | 2016 | 224483 | Exceed Fighting System | 0.875 | no |
42 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.872 | no |
43 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.872 | yes |
44 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.870 | no |
45 | 2000 | 939 | Star Wars: The Queen's Gambit | 0.870 | yes |
46 | 1999 | 204 | Stephenson's Rocket | 0.866 | yes |
47 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.865 | yes |
48 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.864 | yes |
49 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.862 | yes |
50 | 2000 | 883 | Ivanhoe | 0.861 | no |
51 | 2012 | 140068 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | 0.859 | yes |
52 | 1979 | 121 | Dune | 0.854 | yes |
53 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.849 | yes |
54 | 2009 | 45315 | Dungeon Lords | 0.845 | yes |
55 | 2002 | 8095 | Prophecy | 0.844 | yes |
56 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.841 | yes |
57 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.838 | no |
58 | 2014 | 147154 | Blue Moon Legends | 0.836 | yes |
59 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.834 | yes |
60 | 2001 | 4388 | Rome: Imperium, Circus Maximus, Hannibal vs Rome | 0.831 | yes |
61 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.830 | no |
62 | 2011 | 108429 | Age of Reason | 0.830 | no |
63 | 2017 | 195560 | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | 0.820 | no |
64 | 2009 | 35634 | Samurai: The Card Game | 0.813 | no |
65 | 2018 | 221155 | Donning the Purple | 0.810 | yes |
66 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.810 | yes |
67 | 2019 | 228328 | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev | 0.809 | no |
68 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.809 | no |
69 | 2018 | 207729 | The Edge: Dawnfall | 0.808 | no |
70 | 2007 | 22827 | StarCraft: The Board Game | 0.807 | yes |
71 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.806 | no |
72 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.805 | no |
73 | 2005 | 13642 | Louis XIV | 0.805 | yes |
74 | 2018 | 247763 | Underwater Cities | 0.803 | no |
75 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.801 | yes |
76 | 1994 | 18 | RoboRally | 0.799 | no |
77 | 2003 | 5404 | Amun-Re | 0.797 | no |
78 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.796 | yes |
79 | 2018 | 231581 | AuZtralia | 0.795 | no |
80 | 2019 | 295564 | Unmatched Game System | 0.794 | no |
81 | 2018 | 170604 | Renegade | 0.792 | no |
82 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.792 | yes |
83 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.792 | yes |
84 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.790 | no |
85 | 2017 | 197831 | Dark Souls: The Board Game | 0.789 | no |
86 | 2014 | 146886 | La Granja | 0.787 | no |
87 | 2017 | 230889 | Aristeia! | 0.786 | yes |
88 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.786 | yes |
89 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.784 | yes |
90 | 2017 | 226562 | Immortals | 0.782 | yes |
91 | 1995 | 93 | El Grande | 0.782 | yes |
92 | 2016 | 205317 | DOOM: The Board Game | 0.781 | no |
93 | 2009 | 54998 | Cyclades | 0.778 | yes |
94 | 2015 | 182028 | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | 0.778 | yes |
95 | 2018 | 256643 | Neon Gods | 0.776 | no |
96 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.776 | no |
97 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.775 | yes |
98 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.774 | yes |
99 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.770 | yes |
100 | 2000 | 531 | Merchants of Amsterdam | 0.769 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.88 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Gyges is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.989 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.984 | no |
2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.971 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.971 | no |
2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.969 | no |
What games does the model think Gyges is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
-3000 | 2397 | Backgammon | 0.004 | yes |
2017 | 209344 | Rewordable | 0.004 | yes |
2008 | 36648 | Pyramid of Pengqueen | 0.005 | yes |
1978 | 7 | Cathedral | 0.005 | yes |
2014 | 173341 | Loopin' Chewie | 0.005 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Roll for the Galaxy | 504 | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Rising Sun | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
2 | Terra Mystica | Glass Road | Blue Moon Legends | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Terraforming Mars | Gaia Project | New Frontiers | Crusader Kings |
3 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | City of Remnants | La Granja | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Nemesis | Last Bastion |
4 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | BattleLore: Second Edition | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Spirit Island | Donning the Purple | Aftermath |
5 | Space Cadets | Patchistory | Imperial Settlers | Forbidden Stars | Scythe | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
6 | The Great Zimbabwe | Impulse | Fields of Arle | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Exceed Fighting System | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | The Edge: Dawnfall | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev |
7 | Il Vecchio | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Fire in the Lake | Blood Rage | Nova Aetas | Fallout | Underwater Cities | Unmatched Game System |
8 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Concordia | Age of War | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | New Angeles | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | AuZtralia | Era: Medieval Age |
9 | Mice and Mystics | Cuba Libre | Thunderstone Advance: Worlds Collide | Space Cadets: Away Missions | DOOM: The Board Game | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Renegade | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
10 | Pax Porfiriana | Level 7 [Omega Protocol] | Galaxy Defenders | Zombicide: Black Plague | Aeon's End | Too Many Bones | Neon Gods | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
11 | Andean Abyss | Room 25 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Specter Ops | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Dark Souls: The Board Game | Book of Dragons | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
12 | Zombicide | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | Hyperborea | Mombasa | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Aristeia! | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Tapestry |
13 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Burning Suns | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Metal Adventures | Mechs vs. Minions | Immortals | Lords of Hellas | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
14 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Eldritch Horror | Three Kingdoms Redux | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Conan | Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition | Star Realms: Frontiers | Black Rose Wars |
15 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Tomorrow | AquaSphere | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Hit Z Road | Dragonfire | Zombicide: Green Horde | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
16 | Archipelago | Zpocalypse | Istanbul | Alien vs Predator: The Hunt Begins | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Dungeon Alliance | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples |
17 | Virgin Queen | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Akrotiri | Runebound (Third Edition) | The Others | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Heroes of Terrinoth | Dune |
18 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Prosperity | Antike II | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers: Shadows over Innistrad | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Darklight: Memento Mori | Zombicide: Invader |
19 | Clash of Cultures | Lost Legends | Kill Shakespeare | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Cry Havoc | Manoeuvre: Distant Lands | Pax Emancipation | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One |
20 | Kemet | Yggdrasil (Second Edition with Asgard Expansion) | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | Black Orchestra | A Handful of Stars | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Western Empires |
21 | Android: Netrunner | City of Iron | The Golden Ages | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Cutthroat Kingdoms | Concordia Venus | Dungeon Brawler |
22 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Bruxelles 1893 | The Battle at Kemble's Cascade | Apocalypse Chaos | Inis | Massive Darkness | Heroes of Land, Air & Sea | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) |
23 | Thunderstone Advance: Towers of Ruin | Deadzone | Orléans | BATTALIA: The Creation | Dust 1947 | The Smog Riders: Dimensions of Madness | Deep Madness | Aeon's End: Legacy |
24 | Ginkgopolis | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | New Dawn | Food Chain Magnate | Adrenaline | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Too Many Bones: Undertow | Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot |
25 | Antike Duellum | A Study in Emerald | Arcadia Quest | Churchill | Star Trek: Frontiers | Star Saga | Specter Ops: Broken Covenant | Warpgate |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Gyges | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.755 |
Gyges | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.703 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.973 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.808 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.776 | yes |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.769 | yes |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.765 | yes |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.716 | yes |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.704 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.680 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.676 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.671 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.666 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.662 | no |
2020 | 317985 | Beyond the Sun | 0.649 | yes |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.624 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.597 | no |
2020 | 326767 | Infinity N4: Core Rules | 0.583 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.569 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.568 | yes |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.564 | no |
2020 | 284639 | Gatefall | 0.560 | yes |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.554 | no |
2020 | 259061 | Skytear | 0.534 | yes |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.527 | yes |
2020 | 245224 | La Belle Époque | 0.520 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.519 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.504 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.499 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.498 | yes |
2020 | 249275 | The Silver River | 0.490 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.487 | no |
2020 | 278292 | Anachrony: Infinity Box | 0.471 | yes |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.468 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.464 | yes |
2020 | 295486 | My City | 0.455 | yes |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.452 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.449 | no |
2020 | 246911 | Streets Of Steel: Kickin' Asphalt | 0.444 | no |
2020 | 281257 | Aeolis | 0.432 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.423 | no |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.406 | no |
2020 | 177014 | Giga-Robo! | 0.405 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.400 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.393 | no |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.392 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.366 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.366 | yes |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.361 | no |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.359 | no |
2020 | 206480 | Imperial Struggle | 0.351 | yes |
2020 | 228602 | Valor & Villainy: Minions of Mordak | 0.347 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.958 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.950 | no |
3 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.927 | no |
4 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.818 | no |
5 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.818 | no |
6 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.796 | yes |
7 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.786 | no |
8 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.775 | no |
9 | 2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.764 | no |
10 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.762 | no |
11 | 2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.751 | no |
12 | 2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.748 | yes |
13 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.721 | yes |
14 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.721 | no |
15 | 2022 | 344105 | Anunnaki: Dawn of the Gods | 0.712 | no |
16 | 2021 | 332420 | Nexum Galaxy | 0.708 | no |
17 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.705 | no |
18 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.701 | yes |
19 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.701 | no |
20 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.696 | no |
21 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.673 | no |
22 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.670 | yes |
23 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.670 | no |
24 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.658 | no |
25 | 2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.654 | no |
26 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.645 | no |
27 | 2021 | 260934 | Ignite | 0.641 | no |
28 | 2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.636 | yes |
29 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.619 | no |
30 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.614 | no |
31 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.597 | no |
32 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.586 | no |
33 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.584 | no |
34 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.583 | no |
35 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.573 | no |
36 | 2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.571 | no |
37 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.557 | no |
38 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.556 | no |
39 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.551 | no |
40 | 2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.548 | yes |
41 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.547 | no |
42 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.539 | no |
43 | 2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.539 | no |
44 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.539 | no |
45 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.522 | yes |
46 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.517 | no |
47 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.517 | yes |
48 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.513 | no |
49 | 2021 | 318560 | Witchstone | 0.508 | no |
50 | 2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.506 | no |
51 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.504 | no |
52 | 2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.502 | no |
53 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.497 | no |
54 | 2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.492 | no |
55 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.488 | no |
56 | 2021 | 302413 | Steamwatchers | 0.487 | no |
57 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.485 | no |
58 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.485 | no |
59 | 2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.480 | no |
60 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.479 | no |
61 | 2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.477 | no |
62 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.471 | no |
63 | 2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.470 | no |
64 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.469 | no |
65 | 2021 | 291828 | Car Wars (Sixth Edition) | 0.461 | no |
66 | 2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.460 | yes |
67 | 2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.446 | no |
68 | 2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.445 | no |
69 | 2022 | 292509 | The Shadow Planet: The Board Game | 0.441 | no |
70 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.434 | no |
71 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.430 | no |
72 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.424 | no |
73 | 2022 | 313821 | Where Humans Don't Belong | 0.424 | no |
74 | 2021 | 193428 | Street Fighter: The Miniatures Game | 0.418 | yes |
75 | 2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.418 | no |
76 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.411 | no |
77 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.409 | no |
78 | 2021 | 329450 | Equinox | 0.405 | no |
79 | 2021 | 330608 | Cryo | 0.405 | yes |
80 | 2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.405 | yes |
81 | 2021 | 277080 | Titans | 0.394 | no |
82 | 2022 | 242994 | Onimaru | 0.392 | no |
83 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.384 | no |
84 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.381 | no |
85 | 2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.380 | no |
86 | 2022 | 281647 | Stellaris: Infinite Legacy | 0.377 | no |
87 | 2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.376 | yes |
88 | 2021 | 344697 | Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team | 0.372 | no |
89 | 2022 | 254632 | Hyperspace | 0.371 | no |
90 | 2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.366 | no |
91 | 2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.360 | no |
92 | 2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.352 | no |
93 | 2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.352 | no |
94 | 2021 | 277565 | Ashes to Ashes | 0.349 | no |
95 | 2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.346 | yes |
96 | 2021 | 332386 | Brew | 0.341 | no |
97 | 2022 | 324894 | Free Radicals | 0.339 | no |
98 | 2021 | 299450 | Tsukuyumi: Full Moon Down (Second Edition) | 0.337 | yes |
99 | 2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.334 | no |
100 | 2022 | 266018 | Trinidad | 0.326 | no |
## used (Mb) gc trigger (Mb) limit (Mb) max used (Mb)
## Ncells 6016042 321.3 13980205 746.7 NA 13980205 746.7
## Vcells 172751702 1318.0 558901608 4264.1 102400 1113448843 8495.0